Vermont · General Election · November 3, 2026

Vermont Governor 2026: Candidate Pros & Cons

The race comes down to Republican Gov. Phil Scott, seeking a sixth two-year term, and Democrat Amanda Janoo, a first-time candidate. Scott leads, but this is the tightest race of his career.

As of October 12, 2026 · A balanced summary based on published reporting. Not an endorsement.

Where the race stands

Polling, money and forecasts all point to a closer contest than Scott's past landslides.

Vermont Public poll, likely voters

Braun Research for Vermont Public, Sept 10–21, 2026 · 817 Vermonters surveyed

Scott (R)
44%
Janoo (D)
34%
Undecided
16%
Registered voters
42% – 32%
Scott over Janoo, same poll. A separate poll the week before showed a statistical tie.
September fundraising
Janoo ahead
She outraised the incumbent for the month.
Forecasters
Likely R
Most major raters; RealClearPolitics has it at Lean R.
Scott approval
−15 pts
Change since Vermont Public's 2022 poll.
Debates: Vermont Public on October 21 and WCAX on October 28.
Worth knowing: if no candidate gets 50% of the vote, the Legislature picks the governor. That makes minor-candidate votes matter more in a close race.

The candidates

Each candidate's strongest arguments and biggest vulnerabilities, as reflected in campaign coverage.

Republican · Incumbent

Phil Scott

Former business owner, state senator and lieutenant governor. Governor since 2017.

His case is broad, cross-party trust and a check on the Legislature. His weakness is that affordability problems persist after ten years.

Pros

  • Popularity across partiesMorning Consult ranked him the most popular governor in the country as of July. He has historically drawn as much support from Democrats as from Republicans, or more.
  • Electoral strengthHe has won more than 68% of the vote in each of his last three races, by growing margins.
  • A check on the LegislatureIn 2024 he helped break Democratic supermajorities in both chambers. He argues that losing would bring the supermajority back.
  • Experience and a steady messageHis budgets focus on affordability, housing and no new taxes. He describes his approach as pragmatic and incremental.
  • Took on education costsHe pushed through Act 73. Pre-K–12 spending is now $2.5 billion, up from $1.6 billion when he took office.

Cons

  • Affordability resultsCritics say problems got worse on his watch; he blames Democrats for blocking his priorities. Education property taxes rose an average of 14% one year, with another 6% projected.
  • School closuresHe has acknowledged his education plan will close small schools, a real cost for rural towns.
  • Health careCost controls through the Green Mountain Care Board, backed by Scott and the Legislature, contributed in part to hospital layoffs. His main new step is an executive order allowing association health plans.
  • Slipping approvalDown 15 points since 2022.
  • Time in officeA sixth term would make him the longest-serving governor in state history.
Democrat · Challenger

Amanda Janoo

38-year-old economist, formerly with the United Nations. Raised in Strafford, lives in Burlington. First run for office.

Her case is a clear alternative with specific plans. Her weakness is a funding gap and no record in office.

Pros

  • A clear alternativeShe argues Scott has talked about affordability for almost a decade without results, a message landing with voters who want change.
  • Specific health care planGovernment-funded universal primary care, paid for with a 3% income tax on about 2,500 households earning over $500,000.
  • Protects small schoolsShe opposes forced mergers and says there would be no forced school closures under her.
  • Economic credentialsAn economist with international policy experience at the United Nations.
  • Strong grassroots campaignAly Richards outspent her three-to-two in the primary and she still won. Since then she has been endorsed by Bernie Sanders and Ro Khanna.

Cons

  • No elected experienceShe had never run for office and was relatively unknown before this race.
  • Funding gapShe estimates universal primary care would cost more than $300 million a year; her millionaire tax would raise about $110 million. She hasn't fully explained the rest. This is probably her biggest weakness.
  • Tax increases could backfireShe has called for steep tax hikes on second homes and short-term rentals. Supporters see fairness; critics worry about a shrinking tax base or slower tourism.
  • IdeologyShe has acknowledged Vermont's last two Democratic governors, Dean and Shumlin, governed as fiscal moderates. Running to their left is a risk in a state that keeps re-electing a moderate Republican.
  • Attacks over past commentsScott has criticized her past statements about the F-35 jets, which she says were taken out of context. Check the original statements before relying on either side's description.

Also on the ballot: June Goodband, Brian Judd and Dean Roy, minor candidates with little public profile or coverage.

Side by side on the big issues

Where the two main candidates differ most.

IssuePhil Scott (R)Amanda Janoo (D)
EducationAct 73: consolidate school governance and overhaul funding; accepts some small-school closuresNo forced mergers or forced school closures; points to health care and student mental health as cost drivers
Health careGreen Mountain Care Board cost controls; association health plans by executive orderUniversal government-funded primary care
TaxesNo new taxes; grow the tax base through housing3% tax on incomes over $500,000; higher taxes on second homes and short-term rentals
ApproachPragmatic, incremental, a check on the LegislatureBold, progressive change

Bottom line

The race asks whether voters want Scott's slow, cost-cutting approach plus a check on the Democratic Legislature, or Janoo's bigger, tax-funded changes to health care and schools.

Scott's weak point is unsolved affordability after ten years. Janoo's is a funding gap and no record in office. The October 21 and 28 debates should test both, especially her math and his school closures.

Sources

  1. Wikipedia: 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election
  2. Vermont Public: Poll shows Janoo closing in on Scott
  3. VTDigger: Scott leads Janoo by 10 points
  4. Seven Days: Janoo outraised Scott in September
  5. WCAX: Candidates for Vermont governor
  6. WCAX: Contrasting healthcare plans
  7. WCAX: Ro Khanna endorses Janoo
  8. Vermont Public: Janoo wins Democratic primary
  9. Vermont Public: Scott to see Democratic challenge
  10. VTDigger: First Democratic challenger enters race
  11. Seven Days: Scott urges lawmakers on cost of living
  12. Concourse: Scott State of the State comparison
  13. The Green Papers: Vermont 2026
  14. iVoterGuide: Vermont candidate list

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